The Oscar nominations are out, and here's the list with my snarky commentary.
Film
"American Sniper" - Unlikely to win for being too "right wing" but Academy voters don't want Clint Eastwood to kick their ass, so they're going to at least nominate the movie.
"Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)" - Academy voters love a comeback story and this is Michael Keaton's show. However, they might give him an acting trophy and pass on the best picture.
"The Grand Budapest Hotel" - It's nominated because it looks and sounds like it should be an Oscar nominee, but Academy voters think Wes Anderson is too fucking twee to win.
"The Imitation Game" - Front-runner, because it's a costume drama biopic of a dead British guy who did great things, and was oppressed for being gay. The last thing the Academy wants is Harvey Weinstein calling them homophobes during the run up to the final vote.
"Selma" - Nominated to avoid accusations of racism, but won't win because the film dared to bad-mouth LBJ, and most Academy voters were also LBJ voters back then.
"The Theory of Everything" - Second runner, might win if Hawking dies between now and the final vote, or if the producers can guarantee them that he'll give the acceptance speech.
"Whiplash" - Won't win.
Lead actress
Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
It'll be a fight between Moore and Witherspoon, with Moore having an edge since this is her fifth nomination without a win, and Witherspoon won for Walk The Line.
If there's a vote split it won't go to Cotillard, because she dropped some 9/11 truther talk a while back, and Pike's movie was too commercial, so Felicity Jones could come right up the middle for a surprise win.
Lead Actor
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything"
Michael Keaton has an edge, but there's still time for Harvey Weinstein to threaten to call the Academy homophobic if Cumberbatch doesn't win for playing a gay character, even if they sanitized most of Turing's gayness out of the movie.
Director
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Won't win.
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood” Won't win. He's too "un-Hollywood" without being fashionably un-Hollywood.
Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher” Won't win.
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” Won't win.
Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game” Will win. The Academy loves movies about dead British men.
Selma director Ava Duvernay was shut out of the directing nominations. Most are criticizing the shutout as being because she's an African-American woman, but it's most likely because of the aforementioned unsaintly portrayal of LBJ, who really had opposed civil rights up until he realized he could use it for his own political advantage.
Supporting actress
Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood" - Could win, but she works mostly in TV, which Academy voters are still wildly snobby about.
Laura Dern, "Wild" - If she wins and Reese Witherspoon doesn't, Witherspoon will strangle her on stage.
Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game" - Too young and pretty to win.
Emma Stone, "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)" Meryl Streep, "Into The Woods" - Too young and pretty to win.
Supporting actor
Robert Duvall, "The Judge" - Past winner, curmudgeon. Odds are about even.
Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood" - Slim chance.
Edward Norton, "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)" - Better chance, the Academy seems to like him.
Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher" - Won't win because he does The Avengers now.
J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash" - If there's going to be a surprise winner, it'll be Simmons who is probably one of the best character actors working today.
Animated feature film
"Big Hero 6"
"How To Train Your Dragon 2"
"The Tale of the Princess Kaguya"
Documentary feature
“CitizenFour” - Front runner if the director promises to blame Bush during their acceptance speech.
“Finding Vivian Maier”
“Last Days in Vietnam”
“The Salt of the Earth”
“Virunga”
Documentary short subject
“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” “Joanna”
“The Reaper (La Parka)”
“White Earth”
Foreign language film
“Ida” (Poland)
“Leviathan” (Russia) - Will win if Putin threatens to annex Beverly Hills.
“Tangerines” (Estonia)
“Timbuktu” (Mauritania)
“Wild Tales” (Argentina)
Adapted screenplay
Jason Hall, “American Sniper” - Won't win.
Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game” - Might win.
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Inherent Vice” Anthony McCarten, - Won't win, Academy voters don't "get it"
“The Theory of Everything” Damien Chazelle, - Might win.
“Whiplash” - Wasn't even an adapted screenplay.
Original screenplay
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris Jr. and Armando Bo, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood” - Might win because they love it when someone takes their time.
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, “Foxcatcher” - Might win as consolation for being shut out of everything else.
Wes Anderson (screenplay), Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness (story), “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawler”
Animated short film
“The Bigger Picture” “The Dam Keeper” “Feast”
“Me and My Moulton” “A Single Life”
Live action short film
“Aya”
“Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak)” “Parvaneh”
“The Phone Call”
Makeup and hairstyling
“Foxcatcher,” Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard
“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier
“Guardians of the Galaxy,” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White - Will win.
Original score
“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Alexandre Desplat
“The Imitation Game,” Alexandre Desplat
“Interstellar,” Hans Zimmer
“Mr. Turner,” Gary Yershon
“The Theory of Everything,” Jóhann Jóhannsson
Zimmer and Desplat will fight for it.
Original song
“Everything Is Awesome” in “The Lego Movie”
“Glory” in “Selma” - Selma's consolation prize for being shut out of everything else for being mean to LBJ.
“Grateful” in “Beyond the Lights”
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” in “Glen Campbell ... I’ll Be Me”
“Lost Stars” in “Begin Again”
Cinematography
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Emmanuel Lubezki - The film's really long takes might be seen as enough of a challenge to get him the trophy.
“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Robert Yeoman
“Ida,” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
“Mr. Turner,” Dick Pope
“Unbroken,” Roger Deakins
Costume design
“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Milena Canonero
“Inherent Vice,” Mark Bridges - Too many Academy voters have similar outfits in their closet. Won't win.
“Into the Woods,” Colleen Atwood
“Maleficent,” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
“Mr. Turner,” Jacqueline Durran
Film editing
“American Sniper,” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Barney Pilling
“The Imitation Game,” William Goldenberg
“Whiplash,” Tom Cross
Sound mixing
“American Sniper,” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
“Interstellar,” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
“Unbroken,” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
“Whiplash,” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley
Sound editing
“American Sniper,” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” MartÃn Hernández and Aaron Glascock
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies,” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
“Interstellar,” Richard King
“Unbroken,” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro
Production design
“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Adam Stockhausen (production design) and Anna Pinnock (set decoration) - Front runner.
“The Imitation Game,” Maria Djurkovic (production design) and Tatiana Macdonald (set decoration)
“Interstellar” Nathan Crowley (production design) and Gary Fettis (set decoration)
“Into the Woods” Dennis Gassner (production design) and Anna Pinnock (set decoration)
“Mr. Turner” Suzie Davies (production design) and Charlotte Watts (set decoration)
Visual effects
“Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
“Guardians of the Galaxy,” Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
“Interstellar,” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
“X-Men: Days of Future Past,” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer
Doesn't matter who wins, they'll all be bankrupt before the next Academy Awards.
By the way.
The answer to both questions is: No.
