Hollywood Babble On & On #337: Levels of Risk

1. 3 PICS & LEVELS OF RISK

Comedian turned director turned one man movie empire Judd Apatow has signed a 3 picture directing deal with Universal Pictures on the eve of the release of his third movie, Funny People.

Now Apatow isn't perfect, films like Walk Hard, and Year One, have tanked, but on the whole he is as close to a safe bet that Universal can make. His films tend to be relatively inexpensive, so even if they don't break records, they can break even, or even profit a lot easier than most movies. This bucks the trend of most big studio movies that need to have box office takes in the hundreds of millions just to cover the production costs.

As Warner Bros. recently proved, smaller films can reap big rewards when they catch on with the public, like their recent film The Hangover, and hopefully Universal has learned something from that considering the stinky summer they've had so far.

It's also good for Apatow, because his films are pretty low budget, the stay pretty much under the meddle detectors of most studio executives who are too busy micro-managing the big $150 million + productions.

Which brings us to Apatow's Funny People, which is the closest the modest aiming filmmaker has come to a major epic. Reports say that it's his most expensive picture, with a big expensive cast, and at 2.5 hours in length, pretty damn long for an R-Rated comedy. So a lot of people, especially those who despise his loosy goosy improvisation heavy style, and strange mix of lowbrow sexual humour, and family values, are heaping on the negatives, and hoping the film will fail. The major critical aggregators and audience tracking though, are fairly positive, and the experts are guessing forecasting anything between $20-$40 million+ for the film.

Personally, I hope the film turns out to be well done, and does well. Because I'm tired of all the cranking, because Apatow seems to work hard, almost obsessively so, and avoids the excessive trappings of fame and power, preferring his work to speak for him instead of the tabloids.

2. BUZZ FOR BASTERDS & JOE, AND HOW IT COULD ALL GO WRONG

Quentin Tarantino's Inglorious Basterds is tracking well, being beat only by GI Joe among males in the excitement category. However, reports say that the film is now one minute longer than the extra long version shown to much controversy and consternation at Cannes.

Now I think the buzz around GI Joe is based mostly around 30 something males who were kids in the 1980s and fondly remember the toys, cartoon, and comic books shaping their childhood, and aren't paying attention to all the negative buzz emerging from the production by fan-boys disappointed at reports of the changes being made to their childhood memories.

Now both films can have brilliant opening weekends, however, that could easily blow up in their face.

Audiences could walk out of Basterds, thinking that Tarantino promised them an old fashioned "men on a mission" action adventure, but instead pissed on their veteran grandpa's grave, with self indulgent cinematic nihilism. This could cause bad word of mouth, and those who were planning on going on the second night, pick to go somewhere else. GI Joe, could also end up having a big opening night, but those who leave the theatres, could feel that Hasbro and director Stephen Sommers raped their childhoods, and these disappointed filmgoers will let their feelings be known.

So things can go either way, and badly hurt the companies that made these films. The Weinstein Co. is hanging by a thread already, and Basterds could cut that thread if the audiences don't like it. Paramount's had a pretty good summer so far, but could lose a lot if GI Joe hits the dirt instead of the ground running.

So unlike Funny People, the risk levels of these films are much, much higher.